A new study predicts rising temperatures driven by climate change will dramatically increase heat-related heart disease in the USA.
More specifically, the study, published in JAMA Cardiology, estimates the higher temperatures could increase heat-related heart disease by 200% by 2050.
Researchers analysed heart disease data in each county in the contiguous USA from 2010 to 2016 to develop projections through 2050.
Scientists used the Global Burden of Disease database for cardiovascular burden estimates, a NASA-derived global climate model for historical and future temperature projections and US Census Bureau data for baseline and future population calculations. They combined these data to perform county-level calculations.
“We already knew that extreme heat could trigger heart attacks and other cardiovascular events,” said Gokul Parameswaran (Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, USA), the study’s lead author. “But this study is the first to map out exactly how bad the problem could get—county by county, across the US. It also hightlighted how states with lower median household incomes are likely to face higher heat-related heart disease burden.”
Researchers found that the Pacific Northwest has the highest heat-related heart disease rate in the country. Southern states, however, are projected to see the steepest increases by 2050.
“We believe this increase in the south could possibly be driven by three converging factors: the region already carries one of the highest heart disease burdens in the nation, it faces some of the fastest projected temperature increases in the country and presently contains many counties among the poorest in US with the least healthcare infrastructure to cope with the projected crisis,” said Salil Deo (Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, USA), one of the study’s senior authors. “Climate change is not just an environmental issue—it is a health equity crisis, and prioritising vulnerable communities must be at the centre of any heat mitigation strategy.”
The study also found that ageing—independent of temperature increases—will contribute an additional 34% increase in heat-related heart disease by 2050—simply because there will be more older adults by then.
Expanding green spaces and tree cover in urban areas could help reduce temperature-related adverse effects. Expanding access to cooling centres and air-conditioning assistance programmes for low-income communities can also help bridge the gap in underserved communities.
“Climate change is not a distant, abstract threat,” said Sanjay Rajagopalan (University Hospitals, Cleveland, USA), another of the study’s senior authors. “It is a present and growing danger to the hearts of every American, and it is coming for the most vulnerable among us first. The choices made today about greenhouse gas emissions, urban planning and healthcare policy will determine whether tens of thousands of Americans live or die from heart-related heart disease by 2050.”
